Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Academy Awards

Dear Hank,

There are a lot of serious issues and I’ve got lots of important things I need to be doing so let’s talk about last night’s Academy Awards.

We need to talk fashion first. Who’s couture did you like better Zach Galifianakis, or Ben Stiller?

You know they both wore black tuxs, right? They didn’t even say where they got them: Men’s Warehouse or Mel’s Tuxs? Maybe, they even own them? Who knows? I wonder why the announcers were so silent on this topic?

The question I liked best posed by the pre-game show was: “Who are you wearing?”

Can you imagine asking that anywhere else? Picture my asking that of some guy, or gal, down here. They’re sitting at the bar, sipping on a Bud Lite and I saunter over and say, “Excuse me but who are you wearing?”

I think the answers would vary between:

“Huh? Oh, Fran and Fran’s Tackle Shop.” (Or Avon Sail Shop, or Ketch 55, or Risky Business)

to

“What kind of a question is that dip-shit? Are you queer?”

I think this raises a good point. Is there anywhere else but the hour before the Academy Awards on the red carpet leading into the theater that the question proffered could be raised without getting a weird look or your face punched in? I think not.

Why ask: What in the world are you wearing? Did you look in the mirror before you left the house?

And speaking of all that what was wrong with the two big fashion commentators? The beak nosed lady that looked vaguely like a bad version of Barbra Streisand thought Michelle Williams looked fabulous in that red dress with the pouffy middle? And Tim what’s his name (I think he’s gay don’t you?) agreed with her? And they raved over Tina Fey’s dress? Another pouffy in the middle number? And then there was the woman in the red dress with no tits who was trying to hide it by having a wall of curtain pleating darts sticking up in front of her décolletage? What was that about?

Regardless, ladies, if you ever get a chance to go and be on the red carpet you need to perfect the art of the fashion mumble. This is in response to, “Who are you wearing?”

Make sure to run it all together, turn your head slightly down or away from the mic so one can’t really tell what you said and then smile at the person asking the question:

“Who are you wearing?”

“GeeVanisheylkshadoiweohgb iwergubrdo!”

“Well, you look fabulous. I love the way it tightly gathers around the knees and then has the long flowing train behind.”

“It is fabulous, isn’t it?”

“I must say, But why the brown on the cream color of the train? And only the train?”

“Footprints, Brad Pitt and George Clooney thought it’s fun to step on it and see if I face plant. Fortunately, the damn thing is so tight around the knees I can only duck waddle.”

“I see. Marvelous.”


Okay, now the awards. The woman from The Help should have won. Streep was right; half of America was saying, “Oh, no, not again.” Just give her a damn statue beforehand, take her off the board and let’s see who else is deserving. Okay?

I loved the guy who won Best Actor. He is the embodiment of debonaire European charm. He’s their George Clooney. And speaking of George, the woman he was with? Wow. I thought the old girlfriend who was on Dancing with The Stars was gorgeous. The new model is even better. Too bad they didn’t let her say a word, even on the pre-game.


Funniest line - Out take from The Bridesmaids, “I put a loaded gun in his bag. TSA is going to rip him a new one.”

In fact, all the funniest stuff was from Melisa McCarthy: the leg scene from the airplane, and again with Billy Crystal at his dressing room door. The drinking game on with her and the other chic from Bridesmaids. When someone yelled, “Scorsese!” and the two of them whipped out the little liquor bottles and took a swig. Even Martin’s granddaughter, or whoever the little kid who was who was sitting nonplussed the whole night beside him, smiled.


What else? I noticed awards went to films from Pakistan, Iran, and France. All nations we have had our differences with recently. Isn’t this a better way to build rapport than what we, as a nation, have been doing?

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Friday, February 24, 2012

Guns - the Second Amendment- You aren't covered

Dear Hank,

I should know better. But sometimes I get hooked. Recently, a friend of mine sent me an article that outlined how Obama was going to take away their guns as soon as he won his second term. I pointed out that this was exactly the same thing that was said by the same sorts of people before his first term. It didn’t happen. In fact, Mr. Obama has signed every gun friendly piece of legislation that has crossed his desk. But this doesn’t stop those who believe, despite evidence to the contrary, that he’s just laying in the weeds waiting to pounce.

The article in question, like the previous one on the economy he sent me, was written by an ultra conservative think-tank, which has as contributors such people as Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin, and Michael Savage. The websites are closely associated with The Heritage Foundation. I have never seen or read anything that comes out from these people or this organization that has ever agreed with Obama on anything; not even when he adopted their own position.

The discussion then devolved into arguments that law abiding citizens have a right to protect themselves. The fact that owning a gun makes it much more likely that you or a loved one or a close friend or associate can be harmed by the possess of a gun in your possession make no difference to these folks.

So let me state my position on this stuff, which always comes back to second amendment, which states:

“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

I think this is pretty clear. Many who want to keep guns like to quote the last two clauses and forget the first two. Their arguments are elaborate, precise, word mincing.

I’ve read the second amendment. I’ve read the history of why it was written. I take a traditional conservative view when interpreting what this amendment says and means. I think the founding fathers made it very clear what their intention was and what problem they were trying to solve.

As far as the second amendment goes in my view if you want to carry a gun, have one in your house, or whatever; the second amendment does not stop you from doing so. Nor does it protect you or give you an excuse to do so.

The best description of the history and reasoning behind this amendment I have found is here:


http://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/07pdf/07-290.pdf#page=68


Your pdf reading tool may not take you to page 68. If not please go there to start reading. It’s well written, concise and very clear. (I can not say the same for the first 68 pages.)

What is curious to me is that the conservative, right wing media machine was very vocal about activist judges, making law from the bench a few years ago. Here we have a case where they cavalierly overturned 200 years of settled jurisprudence and I haven’t heard a peep of outrage. Nor have I heard any when they took up Citizens United and pulled out a question they were not asked to rule on and did so.

I think we have a problem with guns in this country today and we need to think creatively how to solve those problems. My standard for measurement is to ask the question, “Am I, or my neighbor, safer or better protected by whatever suggestion or law concerning guns is being proposed?”

We lead the modern world in gun related deaths. See:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_firearm-related_death_rate

We can argue about the statistics but there really isn’t much room to debate this fact.

My advise to my gun toting friends is to stop hiding behind the skirt of the second amendment, you’re not covered. If you want to carry guns lawfully you gotta come up with another law.

One person told me that they’ll keep their gun and I can keep my granola bar. Classy dig. However, if I have a granola bar in my closet and you have a gun there’s a better chance you or someone you know will get hurt. The argument that carrying a gun protects you is not born out by the stats - sorry. In fact, quite the opposite is true.

There are serious problems with guns in this country and the law abiding citizen argument doesn’t cut it. There are other countries that have figured out ways to deal with this problem. It is time for an intervention. It is time to admit the problem and work to make our society a safer place.

Okay, let the fireworks begin, I gotta go.

The B man



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Thursday, February 23, 2012

Religion in America and the Declaration of Independence

There are any number of historical facts about the history of the United States that have gotten twisted or forgotten over the years and as the old saying goes, those who forget history are doomed to repeat it. If it were just that we had forgotten something that would be one thing, but when I hear people who want to represent us saying things that are blatantly false then I think we as a people need to say, “Hey, wait a minute.”

I’ll deal with one topic today - religion. Let’s start at the end.


Conclusions:

The United States was founded on the principle of separation of religion from politics because to do otherwise would sully any religion. That is to say if you mix religion and politics it becomes only politics.

The Declaration of Independence is based on principles of rational self evident claims not religious beliefs.

The two men who were most responsible for writing that document were not Christians.

Although most people of that time believed in a creator of the universe and most were probably Christian the principle founding fathers, the men who wrote the Declaration of Independence, went out of their way to remove religion and principles based on beliefs in god from the declaration they were making and government they were creating.

They did make it a tenet of this government that it should have its foundation in the people: not in god, and not in a monarch. I’m sure if the concept of a company was better known at the time they would have made sure to eliminate that too, but who would have thought in the late 18th century that what they started would have drifted so far afield by the twenty-first century?

They espoused a new idea of the time and one that was pretty much untested, the idea of democracy, the will of the people.

All this was scary new territory. But a new nation was being formed and it was not by narrow minded people but well educated thinkers who were willing to face various problems and devise strategies and words to meet them.


Three interesting tidbits about The Declaration of Independence:

The Declaration of Independence is not called that in the document itself. It is titled “A DECLARATION”.

The original document has been lost. What everyone sees is a copy supposedly made from the original and it is not certain who made the copy.

The rough draft has the word “god” with a small “g”. It says “nature’s god.” The copy that everyone sees has both of these words capitalized: “Nature’s God”.



Religion and the United States - Part I:

The idea of democracy in the Americas and the idea of the separation of church and state came from the same man. These ideas became intertwined and not at all in the mainstream of religious or political thought. Most of us know about the Pilgrims and Thanksgiving and The Plymouth Rock and all that. Some may recall that the Pilgrims left England so they could practice their religion as they saw fit and once they got to Massachusetts they set up the same kind of political religious system as they had left in England. It was a solitary religion with no alternatives allowed, and consequences for those who might have wanted to do differently. In short, it was the same system as there was in England but with a different religious belief system as the sanctioned one by the state; in this case the state was The Massachusetts Bay Colony. They breeched no alternative views to their religious beliefs. Those who tried were dealt with severely as we’ll see shortly.

The other thing to know was that at this time in Europe the prevailing belief of the basis for government was what is known as The Divine Right of Kings. This is the idea that the monarch was given the right to rule by god not the people; pretty good gig if you could get it. In England the people had gotten tired of this arrangement and there was a rebellion, a civil war going on, between the people - led by Oliver Cromwell and the King, Charles I.

Now picture if you will in the middle of this a favored son shows up from America. He’s got a problem. He doesn’t like the way the Pilgrims are praying and he set up his own little deal. He started preaching his ideas. The establishment didn’t like it and they went after him. They were going to send him back to England in chains and let him live out his days in jail, which given English jails at the time would be extremely short lived. This man, Roger Williams, managed to stuff some food in his pockets and sneak out of Pilgrim town just before the constabulary came for him and he spent the winter outside, in Massachusetts! Fortunately, the Narraganset Indians took him in and kept him alive. He moved south set up his own little settlement and named it Providence. The Bay Colonists weren’t happy with this and sent an armed squad down to take over. Mr. Williams went to England to plead his case. If he could convince the English to grant him his own charter, his own colony, then the Bay Colony could not claim authority over him and the area he settled in.

Imagine this if you’re in England. There’s a civil war going on between the king and the people. There’s religious strife between Protestant and Catholic. The king is claiming he has a divine right to rule and he gets this right from god. The people are sick and tired of being taxed and abused by the government. Everyone wants their religion to be the sanctioned religion of the state, and in the middle of this a fellow comes along and says, “Excuse me, but would you grant me a colony?”

“Why should we?” is of course a logical question. Here’s where it gets really interesting. What he wants is not a colony set up in the traditional fashion. He doesn’t want a state religion and an almighty political authority blessed by god. He wants a colony where people can practice any religion they want and have any political system they choose.

Do you realize how radical these two ideas are? He’s in a place where two things are givens: there is a state religion and that’s it, and the king is the ruler and his word is divine. This is accepted by the man on the street. Everyone accepts it. They argue about what is fair and how much the king has province to do; but they are arguing about who should be at the top of the heap, not is this the right kind of heap to have.

So what can Mr. Williams do to convince those in parliament to go along with this?

There are three parts to his argument:

One - you want to keep religion and politics separate because politics sullies religion. In other words, if you mix religion and politics it becomes all politics. You keep them separate to keep the religion pure. Rick Santorem take note!

Two - The idea of democracy, i.e. letting the people decide, is a very strange idea and the folks in England are wary. Can’t you hear the arguments? It’s not the way we do things. You can’t trust the people. The king is divine (and even if he isn’t I as lord have a pretty good deal going.)

How did Williams convince them to let him try the democracy idea?

Three - What he argued was this: What I’m setting up is far away and small scale. If it doesn’t work out it’s far enough away from England that it won’t affect you. So if this democracy thing doesn’t work out or this let’s let everyone do their own thing when it comes to religion - so what? I’m far enough away that it won’t matter.


He sold it. He got his charter. He returned to Rhode Island and he got those conservative folks in Massachusetts to back off.


Religion and the United States - Part II:


Let’s move forward about eighty or a hundred years: Ben Franklin and Thomas Jefferson’s time. The Age of Enlightenment as it was called. What started this age? Isaac Newton.

Isaac Newton was the man who introduced the world to the scientific method. His influence on the world, on the common man and all men, is more profound, more world and earth changing then any other human being - period. If you measure who has had the most influence on people living or dead Mohammed and Christ come in a poor second and third respectively. Life before Newtown was pretty much the same the century before he entered the world stage as it was five, ten, fifteen, or twenty five centuries before. There were peasants, their were rulers, their were a few in between, but by and large that was the set up around the world.

Newton’s scientific method changed all that. By employing reason, logic, and the study of what one could test people began to see their world change for the better. Everyday life improved. This led to philosophies that suggested everything could be explained by these methodologies. Everything was brought into question. Is the king divine? Is there a god? Can we prove either of these widely held beliefs? This is what the Age of Enlightenment was all about. (Some will argue that Williams was dead and gone before Franklin and Jefferson arrived on the scene and therefore he had no influence but his teachings were picked up by John Locke who was read by Jefferson and no doubt Franklin, so the claim does not stand up to scrutiny.)

Now comes the American Revolution, and The Declaration of Independence. Jefferson wrote The Declaration of Independence with help from Benjamin Franklin and others. It was also hacked up by the Continental Congress but what we got was still pretty good. One of the things I had heard was that in the early versions of the document Jefferson had written “ that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by God” and that Franklin had changed the last part to “that they are endowed by their Creator.”

However, in trying to verify this I discovered a more fundamental and subtle change made by Franklin. I do see the “that they are endowed by their Creator” was inserted in an early draft but it did not replace “that they are endowed by God” but rather “ that all men are created equal & independent that from that equal creation they derive...”

“self evident” was inserted instead of “ We hold these truths to be sacred and undeniable” So that the final version read “ We hold these truths to be self evident.” This is what Franklin changed.

So what’s the big deal? Who cares? Well, a lot of people do; or at least people who care about the principles that our country was founded upon care.

These two changes are important because of the underlying philosophic change this makes in the document. It changes the document from one based on religion and belief to one of reason, science, and logic.

At this time there was considerable discussion from a Scottish philosopher, David Hume, about the idea of two kinds of truths: synthetic and self-evident. The first, synthetic, deals with matters of fact (“John is taller than Peter.”), and the latter, self-evident, deal with reason and definition ( “a right angle is a ninety degree angle”). Self evident truths are as the name implies obvious by looking at them, or true by definition.

To state that something is self evident rather than sacred is to take that thing out of the realm of religion and put it in the realm of reason.

To say that the Declaration of Independence was founded on Christian principles or religious principles or belief in god is just not true; in fact, the opposite is the case. The founding fathers, in this case Jefferson and more importantly Franklin, went out of their way to make sure that document was not founded on any religious principle.



Religion and the United States - Part III:


This brings us to Thomas Jefferson and Ben Franklin and the statement that some people like to utter, which in some form or other states, that our country was founded on Christian beliefs or a Judaeo-Christian tradition; not quite, one could argue, not even close.

Jefferson and Franklin have been described as “deisists” not Christians. What does that mean? Deism is the idea that one can look at the world as the product of an all powerful creator. It is not based on supernatural beliefs or scriptures but rather on observation of the natural world. It would be closest to the ideas of Unitarianism today.

Jefferson even refashioned the bible by literally cutting and pasting. He cut out passages based on fable and belief and threw them out. He named his work “The Life and Morals of Jesus of Nazareth.”

Jefferson was originally an Episcopalian, a catholic part of the Christian community. Catholic meaning belief that the church was founded from the apostle Paul and descended from him. The Episcopalians did not and do not acknowledge the Pope as the head of the catholic church.

I’d guess that if you were to ask Jefferson or Franklin if they were Christian you’d get a qualified answer. It would probably run along the lines of they were raised in a Christian family so they hold with a lot of the Christian beliefs but as they got older they questioned some parts of it; notably those parts that had no basis in fact but were based on supernatural phenomena, and on fables. They would probably say they were “enlightened” and as such they looked to reason and observation to explain their world and how it came to be. Is their an ultimate authority or being that can be called upon? Who can say for sure? But we can refer to this idea as the creator. Whether the creator exists like an old man with a long white beard who lives in heaven, wherever that is, is probably not true; and what form this creator takes, if he exists at all, is unknown to us at this time because we have no verifiable evidence.


So when you hear a politician say that he let’s his faith guide him in political matters, or he’s a Christian or Mormon, or whatever and this is the reason he is qualified to run for office, you might want to think twice about his fitness for office here in the United States because he in direct conflict with what our founding fathers intended.




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Monday, February 20, 2012

The Great Depression of 1931

I'm sitting in the doctor's office and I saw this Newsweek (12/11/2011) that had an article called

Double-Dip Depression.

The author points out that many people forget what caused The Great Depression and how many world leaders, financial, and economic leaders don't know.

The Great Depression was "like a soccer match with two halves". The first half was the stock market crash of 1929; the second half was the truly "great" crisis that was begun by the European bank crisis of 1931. This was caused by the Fed tightening credit rather than loosening (ie buying bond and lowering interest rates.) This caused bank failures which led to many bank failures and a contraction of the money supply by 1/3 and economic output dropped by the same amount. This caused the problem to go global and most of the banks were held to a gold standard and in an acrimonious political environment they were not able to come to any agreement.

It was not until they abandoned the gold standard and focused on job creation that the world pulled out of the problem.

Unfortunately the author points out, the job creation was in armaments and Germany was best at it and - well - we know the rest.

The author of the article Niall Ferguson mentions two books that one should read if you want to really understand this problem:

Milton Friedman and Anna Swartz,



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Monetary_History_of_the_United_States


and

Golden Fetters by

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Eichengreen


Also, written by the author

Niall Ferguson The West and the Rest


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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Moneyball and Austrian Economics

Moneyball and Austrian Economics


Dear Hank,


I’ve had a number of run-ins with folks who seem to be very concerned about the economy and think they have an answer; or at least, they think whoever is in charge is doing the wrong thing. I typically ask why; what evidence do you have; and what would you do.

The answers I get back are never useful. The why is answered with a statistic or catch phrase; no evidence is ever offered - other than the one statistic that doesn’t support their argument; and the what would you do is usually answered with some wishful magical thinking about getting government out of the way and letting business do its job.

Let’s agree on a few thing right up front. No system has been found to work perfectly, ie there are exceptions to any rule. Most things when taken to an extreme cause problems - typically, moderation is better.

Most recently someone responded to something I wrote about the economic situation in Greece. I think the Greek situation is tragic and many of the measures being adopted aren’t probably going to work. This led someone to question the stimulus spending in the U.S. They claimed it was a waste of money because once the money is spent the jobs go away and the economy is no better off. Well, is that true? And then the question is what would one do differently? The answer to the last question from these folks is cut government spending (kill the unions, etc.), and shrink the deficit. The question I always ask is, “Do you have any examples where this has worked?” You can talk theory, history, recent times; I know of no cases where this has been successful. By successful I mean a healthier more robust economy then before you did any of the cut and shrink suggestions. I do have plenty of examples of it not working.

Let’s talk fairy tales and history, when has it ever been the case that the King (the president), the nobles (the rich), and parliament (the congress) decided that they would screw over the peasants and enrich themselves that this helped their economy and didn’t lead to some kind of revolt or economic chaos?

History is littered with examples. The Eastern Roman Empire existed for over 900 years, every time the large landholders became powerful they passed laws to exempt themselves from paying taxes and the small land holders and little merchants had their taxes increased until those people literally ran for the hills; there was no money in the treasury because there was no one left to tax. Yet, when the middle class was allowed to prosper - and that meant holding the rich and powerful in check; a difficult job for the emperor - trade increased, farming increased, production increased and tax revenue went up without being too burdensome. Is there an example contrary to this? I don’t know of any.

This brings me to Ron Paul and his comment, “We are all Austrians.” He was referring to the idea that we all subscribe to the school of Austrian economics. I’ve heard of this strain of economic thought but never really looked at it much. Well, this is shocking to hear but it is outside of the mainstream of economic thought. It rejects the idea that you can use mathematical models to predict anything about human behavior and the best thing to do is let laissez faire policies take hold. That means the government should do nothing and let things play out as they may.

This is fine if you’ve got a level playing field and everyone wants to do good, but when has that ever been the case? If you bring a pea shooter to a battle and the other side has a full division of tanks who’s gonna win? If the game is rigged to let someone else win what chance do you have? Very little, if you are lucky you can join the other side and screw your friends and neighbors but otherwise you’re lose.

Let me break down the fundamentals of capitalism. In a pure supply and demand model where there are no barriers to entry the suppliers compete by lowering their prices to attract business (ie demand.) How low will they go? Theory says they’ll go to the point where they make no profit. History says they’ll go even lower. They’ll borrow money to try and stay afloat; hoping that things will get better. When they can no longer borrow and no longer pay they go out of business (they run for the hills, go bankrupt, call it what you will.) So, who ends up owning the scraps? The rich, the powerful, etc.

A true capitalist wants to make a profit. A true capitalist wants nothing to do with pure supply and demand. Let me break it down to the simplest question I have ever been asked by a venture capitalist, and that I think captures the essence of real world capitalism and I think this statement has been true throughout the ages, “How do I get an unfair competitive advantage?”

That’s it. A true capitalist wants an unfair competitive advantage. Let’s put aside all the fancy talk - how can you get an unfair competitive advantage? Some methods of unfair advantages are socially acceptable, some are not, some are borderline. Is buying a company for less than it asset value and selling off those assets socially acceptable? It depends on which social circle you travel in. It also helps if you couch what you did in more grandiose terms and shift the blame elsewhere - case in point Mitt Romney and Bain Capital. If you have a patent or knowledge that others don’t you have an advantage. If you can get the king, the lords, and/or the parliament to give you contracts, dispensations, or rules in your favor you have an advantage. If you can kill your competition (say with a bullet to the head as drug gangs are doing in Mexico) you have an advantage. So if you are a true capitalist you want to figure out an advantage and if you have got one you certainly don’t want someone getting in your way, say by preventing you from shooting your competition in the head or forcing you to spend money on worker safety or paying people more.

Here’s the thing about The Austrian Economics that’s so in line with current conservative thinking. It depends on magic.

Have you ever seen the cartoon where two professors are standing in front of a blackboard filled with equations and one of them says, “And then a miracle happens.”?

That’s Austrian and conservative economic theory in a nutshell. Let’s throw in a little “Aw shucks, I don’t know nuthin’ “ kick sand on our shoes for some homespun goodness but when you finish the analysis that’s what you’ve got: magic and ignorance.

Let me explain. The Austrian economic theory says you can’t reduce human behavior to a bunch of statistical and mathematical models. Humans are too complex. Therefore the best thing to do is throw up your hands and let the chips fall where they may (ie laissez faire economics). They also have thoughts about credit and bubbles but let’s save that for another post. Conservatives seem to think in a similar way with a huge dose of “We don’t want the government telling us what to do.” Okay, who does? No one that I know of.

However, let’s go with the hands off model and someone gets to be so powerful or a group gets to be so powerful that they can manipulate the game. My question is “At that point do you still want to play the game?” The answer I get varies between: I don’t believe it, let me quote the statistic I gave you before that doesn’t prove my point, and I believe in the hardworking people (or the country, or the economy, or something). Well, that’s fine, I believe in all that; how does that help the situation? At this point we go back to the same answers until I’m either called names or they go silent. (Often times racist or religious implications are thrown in with a nod nod wink wink you understand quality and when I say I don’t understand and would they please explain I’m told I don’t get it. To which I say oh yes I get it - you are a racist or religious bigot and then the conversation goes silent.)

Here’s the fascinating thing about Mr. Paul and the Austrian model of economics. It rejects the idea that you can be at all predictive of human behavior. Well, I just watched Moneyball the movie based on the Michael Lewis book that shows how the 2002 Oakland A’s revolutionized the game of baseball by creating statistical models that predicted human behavior. So it can be done, if you’re willing. If you’re not, well, try magic.

Enough for now.

I gotta go a Nigerian relative that I never heard of just died and left me seventy five million ponds sterling.


Take care,


Bryce

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Tuesday, February 07, 2012

The Kite Test - The End of the World

THE END OF THE WORLD

Dear Hank,

I don’t want to sound alarmist so I hope you will keep this under your hat so to speak but I feel I should tell you that THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT IS STARTING.

Let me explain in one sentence: The world will end on 3-16 or 3-12 or maybe 12-21; I can’t say for sure but I can tell you this - it is my fault because I took that stupid test; the one that asked you to rate yourself as a kiteflier and gives you a score, which I have to say I did pretty well at and therein lies the problem because, you see, everyone will want to do well (“What did you get? Oh too bad I got a better-than-you score - ciao loser.”) so soon people will cheat and puff up their kiteflying number or they will say “you forgot this” or “what about that?” and then someone (like me) will try to include some really relevant stuff, which coincidentally puffs up my kf score, but then the pretenders will come along and say something like “Give yourself a point if you’ve flown kites with John Doe. - signed Sally Doe.” and then there will be the splinter tests like: “Test for four liners” (and two and one and three and five - etc.) there will then be a big annual banquet that will start out being a big party and everyone having fun but will eventually get squeezed out because “everyone wants their moment in the sun” and there will be bunches of overlapping awards and plaques to be handed out along with the inevitable windy (get it “windy?”) speeches and the special awards and there will be a convention with the same old boring workshops (“How to score big on #34.”, “Do you really have to see Messr. Lynn naked to get a point, Isn’t a photograph good enough?” etc.), and then there are those that, while they don’t cheat they only play to the test, hence no one sees any kites made or flown except enough to score the points (not to mention the folks that end up impaling themselves in someway because they are carrying around sharp or pointy objects in their pockets that they don’t really know what they are or how to use them but hey they get the point (“get the point?” clever again huh?) and then the inevitable pins, patches and t-shirts that follow, which become a mini-industry in itself but all this misses the point because the real problem is the segregation of our society into warring classes and counter accusations, which of course will start out civil enough because someone will create a kite mensa society (“What did you score I got 130!”) and the inevitable reaction to such (“Jane you ignorant slut the test only goes to 73!” [to which the reply is, “Oh you poor dumb boy, all you have to do is multiply your score by 2!”) and this will lead to the haves and the have-nots which will mean one group will feel superior and if the other group feels inferior they will try to get back at the superior feeling ones which will lead to fights and new rules which will turn off some and others will be eliminated because we don’t have insurance or we decided to change the rules so whatever you used to do that was fun is now a burden and so people will no longer care about the original test and there will be another group or three that will form on their own with their own test and like the Tower of Babel whatever energy we had will be dissipated and lost, but we will try and recapture it by bringing new people and groups into the fold only to piss them off with some new slogan like “No kiteflier left behind” but then we’ll say something like, “You’re not a kiteflier you only got a 13!” and there will be accusations of teaching to the test and there will rise up a group of teachers and false prophets who will claim to know the truth and will not (btw I’m negotiating with Madonna and the NFL to get the props from the half time Super Bowl show so we can have a proper induction ceremony for the Corey as Lama or to celebrate Kathy Goodwin’s next big birthday. Not sure if we can get enough muscled Roman soldier types to suit Kathy [or bare breasted bikinied bottomed buxom models to suit Corey], but I digress); however, we will then see the rise of the “off-the-test” reactionaries, which will include the fundamentalists (“there is only one test”), the test-partiests (“our fore-fathers did not fly kites to have them taken away from us by the kite boarders or the para-gliders”), the conservatives (“my Daddy and I flew a Ben Franklin two sticker and that’s good enough for me!”), and the deanists (“It’s too late, kiteflying has gone to hell, we need to rise up and only fly with our friends, you - btw - are not my friend”) and so it will go until someone in California calls a halt to all this silliness by proposing something even sillier and they will be known as the K-dasians: a willy group of seni-close knit family members with no apparent kiteflying or kite making skills who will launch themselves into the middle of the kiteflying world by grabbing headlines week after week (“He stole my heart, then he stole my kite [design]”, “She lost 87 pounds in five weeks and you can too on the kite diet!”, “...is in rehab. I can’t fly another kite I’m so addicted”, “I gave up sex for this?” etc.) and then the goodness that we had hoped will ultimately dissolve into a K-mart endcap selling plastic kites from China that are a knock-off of the ones you saw someone else steal from someone else from someone else and well the world will never be the same.

Gotta go someone’s at the door with avocados.

Bryce


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